tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: WN 4349 at 08:16 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 19%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 4349 Southwest BWI 08:16 MSY 09:56 8% 1% 0.6% no record
WN 1092 Southwest BWI 16:06 MSY 17:45 19% 5% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New Orleans on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New Orleans is 1 h behind Baltimore). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BWI 05:40 → ATL 07:31DL 2950 3h 34m Atlanta ATL 11:05 → MSY 11:37DL 2542 6h 57m 100% 92%
SouthwestDetails → BWI 07:11 → DAL 09:17WN 15 1h 44m Dallas DAL 11:01 → MSY 12:39WN 4831 6h 28m 100% 90%
DeltaDetails → BWI 08:17 → ATL 10:10DL 2562 3h 35m Atlanta ATL 13:45 → MSY 14:17DL 3157 7h 00m 100% 89%
DeltaDetails → BWI 10:33 → ATL 12:24DL 1592 2h 59m Atlanta ATL 15:23 → MSY 15:57DL 3146 6h 24m 99% 88%
AmericanDetails → BWI 05:02 → CLT 06:26AA 1708 2h 20m Charlotte CLT 08:46 → MSY 09:58AA 2287 5h 56m 99% 87%
UnitedDetails → BWI 06:00 → IAH 08:16UA 1898 3h 39m Houston IAH 11:55 → MSY 13:14UA 2385 8h 14m 100% 86%
DeltaDetails → BWI 06:08 → DTW 07:39DL 2601 1h 01m Detroit DTW 08:40 → MSY 10:14DL 2790 5h 06m 95% 85%
DeltaDetails → BWI 14:08 → ATL 16:05DL 2711 3h 49m Atlanta ATL 19:54 → MSY 20:28DL 1450 7h 20m 99% 83%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON