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Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 07:15, is the safest bet: 90% chance of reaching Ontario on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Ontario on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Ontario is 3 h behind Baltimore). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BWI 07:15 → SLC 09:50DL 1176 1h 27m Salt Lake City SLC 11:17 → ONT 12:12DL 1173 7h 57m 97% 90%
DeltaDetails → BWI 05:40 → ATL 07:31DL 2950 1h 50m Atlanta ATL 09:21 → ONT 10:38DL 665 7h 58m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → BWI 11:52 → ATL 13:41DL 801 3h 24m Atlanta ATL 17:05 → ONT 18:30DL 2891 9h 38m 100% 79%
UnitedDetails → BWI 08:30 → DEN 10:25UA 2412 1h 00m Denver DEN 11:25 → ONT 12:47UA 430 7h 17m 88% 76%
AmericanDetails → BWI 11:58 → DFW 14:13AA 2314 3h 45m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 17:58 → ONT 19:16AA 3006 10h 18m 98% 71%
FrontierDetails → BWI 13:21 → DFW 15:38F9 1475 1h 52m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 17:30 → ONT 19:07F9 4689 8h 46m 90% 68%
AlaskaDetails → BWI 07:03 → SEA 09:53AS 786 1h 35m Seattle SEA 11:28 → ONT 14:01AS 571 9h 58m 95% 62%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON