Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: YX 4596 at 06:04 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–31%.

Safest bet that day YX 4596 BWI 06:04 → ORD 07:21 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 590 BWI 17:32 → ORD 18:55 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 57% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 4596 Republic	BWI 06:04	ORD 07:21	7%	3%	1.7%	no record
UA 2749 United Flight history →	BWI 08:16	ORD 09:30	15%	4%	0.6%	86%
AA 3762 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	BWI 11:28	ORD 12:33	17%	6%	1.5%	79%
UA 249 United	BWI 11:55	ORD 13:07	17%	7%	0.6%	no record
MQ 4253 Envoy	BWI 14:18	ORD 15:34	20%	7%	1.4%	no record
YX 4758 Republic	BWI 18:15	ORD 19:33	21%	9%	2.1%	no record
F9 4307 Frontier Flight history →	BWI 10:21	ORD 11:36	22%	7%	2.0%	67%
UA 1223 United	BWI 19:10	ORD 20:27	28%	10%	0.6%	no record
UA 590 United Flight history →	BWI 17:32	ORD 18:55	31%	10%	0.6%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON