Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 06:20, is the safest bet: 91% chance of reaching Portland on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AS 653 Alaska	BWI 16:43	PDX 19:22	15%	4%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Portland is 3 h behind Baltimore). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BWI 06:20 → MSP 07:54DL 2872	3h 05m Minneapolis	MSP 10:59 → PDX 12:41DL 1661	9h 21m	99%	92%
Delta Details →	BWI 11:35 → MSP 13:11DL 2357	2h 47m Minneapolis	MSP 15:58 → PDX 17:35DL 2008	9h 00m	100%	91%
Delta Details →	BWI 07:15 → SLC 09:50DL 1176	1h 25m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:15 → PDX 12:10DL 1209	7h 55m	97%	90%
Delta Details →	BWI 05:40 → ATL 07:31DL 2950	3h 29m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → PDX 12:58DL 2206	10h 18m	100%	89%
United Details →	BWI 08:30 → DEN 10:25UA 2412	3h 02m Denver	DEN 13:27 → PDX 15:13UA 2455	9h 43m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	BWI 06:08 → DTW 07:39DL 2601	1h 15m Detroit	DTW 08:54 → PDX 10:36DL 2171	7h 28m	97%	87%
Delta Details →	BWI 11:52 → ATL 13:41DL 801	3h 11m Atlanta	ATL 16:52 → PDX 18:56DL 503	10h 04m	100%	87%
Delta Details →	BWI 14:08 → ATL 16:05DL 2711	3h 45m Atlanta	ATL 19:50 → PDX 21:51DL 691	10h 43m	99%	85%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON