Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 1105 at 06:22 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 10–22%.

Safest bet that day WN 1105 BWI 06:22 → PHX 08:19 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 497 BWI 18:16 → PHX 20:09 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1105 Southwest	BWI 06:22	PHX 08:19	5%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 1106 Southwest	BWI 09:30	PHX 11:27	10%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 497 Southwest	BWI 18:16	PHX 20:09	22%	6%	0.6%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


American Details →	BWI 05:02 → CLT 06:26AA 1708	1h 15m Charlotte	CLT 07:41 → PHX 09:05AA 1678	7h 03m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	BWI 06:08 → DTW 07:39DL 2601	56m Detroit	DTW 08:35 → PHX 09:44DL 1070	6h 36m	94%	85%
Delta Details →	BWI 09:39 → DTW 11:07DL 2341	1h 40m Detroit	DTW 12:47 → PHX 13:50DL 813	7h 11m	96%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON