tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: WN 4681 at 10:41 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 19%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 4681 Southwest BWI 10:41 PIT 11:51 6% 2% 0.6% no record
WN 4381 Southwest BWI 18:01 PIT 19:11 19% 5% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Pittsburgh on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BWI 05:40 → ATL 07:31DL 2950 3h 39m Atlanta ATL 11:10 → PIT 12:52DL 1345 7h 12m 100% 91%
DeltaDetails → BWI 08:17 → ATL 10:10DL 2562 3h 58m Atlanta ATL 14:08 → PIT 15:50DL 1353 7h 33m 100% 90%
AmericanDetails → BWI 05:02 → CLT 06:26AA 1708 1h 39m Charlotte CLT 08:05 → PIT 09:30AA 2310 4h 28m 98% 90%
UnitedDetails → BWI 08:16 → ORD 09:30UA 2749 3h 10m Chicago ORD 12:40 → PIT 15:23UA 3432 · flown by Republic 7h 07m 100% 88%
DeltaDetails → BWI 17:00 → ATL 19:08DL 2799 2h 06m Atlanta ATL 21:14 → PIT 23:00DL 2583 6h 00m 97% 87%
DeltaDetails → BWI 10:33 → ATL 12:24DL 1592 2h 59m Atlanta ATL 15:23 → PIT 17:08DL 1568 6h 35m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → BWI 11:52 → ATL 13:41DL 801 3h 16m Atlanta ATL 16:57 → PIT 18:47DL 3122 6h 55m 100% 85%
DeltaDetails → BWI 06:21 → BOS 08:00DL 5813 · flown by Republic 3h 45m Boston BOS 11:45 → PIT 13:41DL 5731 · flown by Republic 7h 20m 99% 83%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON