Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 1131 at 08:10 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–19%.

Safest bet that day WN 1131 BWI 08:10 → RDU 09:29 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2144 BWI 18:02 → RDU 19:21 · 19% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1131 Southwest	BWI 08:10	RDU 09:29	6%	1%	0.8%	no record
WN 2421 Southwest	BWI 10:45	RDU 12:04	7%	2%	0.8%	no record
WN 733 Southwest	BWI 14:31	RDU 15:50	13%	4%	0.8%	no record
WN 4632 Southwest	BWI 20:06	RDU 21:25	16%	5%	0.8%	no record
WN 2144 Southwest	BWI 18:02	RDU 19:21	19%	5%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON