tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: WN 225 at 09:31 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 18%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 225 Southwest BWI 09:31 RIC 10:31 7% 2% 0.6% no record
WN 4521 Southwest BWI 16:41 RIC 17:40 18% 4% 0.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Richmond on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BWI 05:40 → ATL 07:31DL 2950 2h 44m Atlanta ATL 10:15 → RIC 11:56DL 2650 6h 16m 99% 93%
DeltaDetails → BWI 07:00 → ATL 08:52DL 2579 3h 40m Atlanta ATL 12:32 → RIC 14:15DL 3152 7h 15m 100% 92%
AmericanDetails → BWI 05:02 → CLT 06:26AA 1708 1h 53m Charlotte CLT 08:19 → RIC 09:42AA 1775 4h 40m 98% 90%
AmericanDetails → BWI 06:15 → CLT 07:53AA 2670 2h 36m Charlotte CLT 10:29 → RIC 11:48AA 5119 · flown by PSA 5h 33m 98% 90%
DeltaDetails → BWI 09:39 → DTW 11:07DL 2341 3h 18m Detroit DTW 14:25 → RIC 16:05DL 3073 6h 26m 98% 89%
DeltaDetails → BWI 10:33 → ATL 12:24DL 1592 2h 22m Atlanta ATL 14:46 → RIC 16:23DL 1214 5h 50m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → BWI 11:52 → ATL 13:41DL 801 3h 31m Atlanta ATL 17:12 → RIC 18:53DL 1348 7h 01m 100% 85%
DeltaDetails → BWI 14:08 → ATL 16:05DL 2711 2h 28m Atlanta ATL 18:33 → RIC 20:16DL 1263 6h 08m 98% 83%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → BWI 13:45 → BOS 15:23DL 5668 · flown by Republic 47m Boston BOS 16:10 → RIC 18:17DL 5665 · flown by Republic 4h 32m 72% 54%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON