Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: WN 1142 at 10:36 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 17%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 1142 Southwest	BWI 10:36	ROC 11:58	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 548 Southwest	BWI 17:26	ROC 18:48	17%	4%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Rochester on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	BWI 05:02 → CLT 06:26AA 1708	3h 48m Charlotte	CLT 10:14 → ROC 12:14AA 2742	7h 12m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	BWI 05:40 → ATL 07:31DL 2950	1h 52m Atlanta	ATL 09:23 → ROC 11:31DL 2511	5h 51m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	BWI 10:33 → ATL 12:24DL 1592	2h 51m Atlanta	ATL 15:15 → ROC 17:20DL 2047	6h 47m	99%	80%
Delta Details →	BWI 09:39 → DTW 11:07DL 2341	3h 18m Detroit	DTW 14:25 → ROC 15:48DL 5211 · flown by Endeavor	6h 09m	98%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON