Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 287 at 06:11 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 22–32%.

Safest bet that day WN 287 BWI 06:11 → SAN 08:33 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1059 BWI 16:41 → SAN 19:01 · 32% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 287 Southwest	BWI 06:11	SAN 08:33	11%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 2407 Southwest	BWI 09:46	SAN 12:07	22%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 1059 Southwest	BWI 16:41	SAN 19:01	32%	7%	0.7%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	BWI 06:20 → MSP 07:54DL 2872	57m Minneapolis	MSP 08:51 → SAN 10:38DL 2121	7h 18m	94%	82%
Delta Details →	BWI 06:08 → DTW 07:39DL 2601	1h 06m Detroit	DTW 08:45 → SAN 10:27DL 492	7h 19m	96%	81%
Delta Details →	BWI 07:00 → ATL 08:52DL 2579	1h 08m Atlanta	ATL 10:00 → SAN 11:39DL 843	7h 39m	96%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON