tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:40, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching San Antonio on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 71% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 1694 Southwest BWI 08:21 SAT 10:47 6% 2% 0.6% no record
WN 1152 Southwest BWI 13:56 SAT 16:24 13% 4% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Antonio on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Antonio is 1 h behind Baltimore). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → BWI 07:11 → DAL 09:17WN 15 1h 20m Dallas DAL 10:37 → SAT 11:54WN 2855 5h 43m 100% 94%
DeltaDetails → BWI 07:00 → ATL 08:52DL 2579 3h 23m Atlanta ATL 12:15 → SAT 13:38DL 1408 7h 38m 100% 89%
DeltaDetails → BWI 06:20 → MSP 07:54DL 2872 1h 06m Minneapolis MSP 09:00 → SAT 11:49DL 2667 6h 29m 96% 88%
AmericanDetails → BWI 05:02 → CLT 06:26AA 1708 2h 15m Charlotte CLT 08:41 → SAT 10:37AA 2889 6h 35m 99% 88%
UnitedDetails → BWI 08:30 → DEN 10:25UA 2412 3h 19m Denver DEN 13:44 → SAT 16:55UA 1022 9h 25m 99% 87%
UnitedDetails → BWI 06:00 → IAH 08:16UA 1898 1h 19m Houston IAH 09:35 → SAT 10:47UA 1371 5h 47m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → BWI 08:17 → ATL 10:10DL 2562 3h 35m Atlanta ATL 13:45 → SAT 15:10DL 2009 7h 53m 100% 86%
DeltaDetails → BWI 10:33 → ATL 12:24DL 1592 3h 16m Atlanta ATL 15:40 → SAT 17:11DL 1465 7h 38m 99% 85%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → BWI 17:32 → ORD 18:55UA 590 1h 03m Chicago ORD 19:58 → SAT 22:57UA 1394 6h 25m 71% 55%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON