tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 7–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 1748 Southwest BWI 09:51 SDF 11:40 7% 2% 0.6% no record
WN 2630 Southwest BWI 15:56 SDF 17:45 13% 5% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Louisville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BWI 05:40 → ATL 07:31DL 2950 2h 59m Atlanta ATL 10:30 → SDF 11:51DL 1481 6h 11m 99% 91%
SouthwestDetails → BWI 07:11 → DAL 09:17WN 15 2h 39m Dallas DAL 11:56 → SDF 15:10WN 1460 7h 59m 100% 87%
DeltaDetails → BWI 10:33 → ATL 12:24DL 1592 1h 58m Atlanta ATL 14:22 → SDF 15:42DL 3195 5h 09m 98% 87%
AmericanDetails → BWI 06:15 → CLT 07:53AA 2670 2h 34m Charlotte CLT 10:27 → SDF 11:52AA 5145 · flown by PSA 5h 37m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → BWI 06:21 → BOS 08:00DL 5813 · flown by Republic 1h 26m Boston BOS 09:26 → SDF 12:09DL 5615 · flown by Republic 5h 48m 98% 85%
DeltaDetails → BWI 11:52 → ATL 13:41DL 801 2h 44m Atlanta ATL 16:25 → SDF 17:49DL 1126 5h 57m 100% 84%
DeltaDetails → BWI 14:08 → ATL 16:05DL 2711 3h 49m Atlanta ATL 19:54 → SDF 21:18DL 3093 7h 10m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → BWI 17:00 → ATL 19:08DL 2799 1h 30m Atlanta ATL 20:38 → SDF 22:04DL 2842 5h 04m 94% 82%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON