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Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 11:35, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching Seattle on time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AS 786 Alaska Flight history → BWI 07:03 SEA 09:53 21% 3% 0.7% 82%
AS 379 Alaska Flight history → BWI 18:07 SEA 21:00 26% 7% 0.7% 67%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Seattle on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Seattle is 3 h behind Baltimore). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BWI 06:20 → MSP 07:54DL 2872 3h 16m Minneapolis MSP 11:10 → SEA 13:00DL 889 9h 40m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → BWI 07:00 → ATL 08:52DL 2579 3h 41m Atlanta ATL 12:33 → SEA 14:50DL 629 10h 50m 100% 88%
DeltaDetails → BWI 11:35 → MSP 13:11DL 2357 2h 04m Minneapolis MSP 15:15 → SEA 17:00DL 877 8h 25m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → BWI 05:40 → ATL 07:31DL 2950 2h 19m Atlanta ATL 09:50 → SEA 12:13DL 774 9h 33m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → BWI 10:33 → ATL 12:24DL 1592 2h 14m Atlanta ATL 14:38 → SEA 16:49DL 481 9h 16m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → BWI 11:52 → ATL 13:41DL 801 3h 04m Atlanta ATL 16:45 → SEA 19:05DL 472 10h 13m 100% 83%
DeltaDetails → BWI 07:15 → SLC 09:50DL 1176 3h 30m Salt Lake City SLC 13:20 → SEA 14:35DL 2921 10h 20m 99% 83%
AmericanDetails → BWI 05:02 → CLT 06:26AA 1708 2h 21m Charlotte CLT 08:47 → SEA 11:41AA 2407 9h 39m 99% 83%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON