Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 2192 at 08:08 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 18–28%.

Safest bet that day UA 2192 BWI 08:08 → SFO 11:15 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest UA 504 BWI 18:59 → SFO 21:50 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 56% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2192 United Flight history →	BWI 08:08	SFO 11:15	15%	4%	0.6%	94%
WN 4351 Southwest	BWI 11:46	SFO 14:32	18%	7%	0.6%	no record
UA 504 United Flight history →	BWI 18:59	SFO 21:50	28%	11%	0.6%	56%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	BWI 11:35 → MSP 13:11DL 2357	1h 56m Minneapolis	MSP 15:07 → SFO 17:12DL 756	8h 37m	99%	80%
Delta Details →	BWI 05:40 → ATL 07:31DL 2950	54m Atlanta	ATL 08:25 → SFO 10:20DL 693	7h 40m	93%	79%
Delta Details →	BWI 06:20 → MSP 07:54DL 2872	1h 30m Minneapolis	MSP 09:24 → SFO 11:32DL 2078	8h 12m	98%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON