Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 07:15, is the safest bet: 89% chance of reaching San Jose on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 3400 Southwest	BWI 11:41	SJC 14:21	12%	3%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Jose on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Jose is 3 h behind Baltimore). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BWI 05:40 → ATL 07:31DL 2950	2h 12m Atlanta	ATL 09:43 → SJC 11:30DL 809	8h 50m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	BWI 07:15 → SLC 09:50DL 1176	1h 50m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:40 → SJC 12:35DL 1254	8h 20m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	BWI 06:20 → MSP 07:54DL 2872	2h 11m Minneapolis	MSP 10:05 → SJC 12:01DL 2383	8h 41m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	BWI 11:52 → ATL 13:41DL 801	3h 18m Atlanta	ATL 16:59 → SJC 18:52DL 2136	10h 00m	100%	87%
Delta Details →	BWI 17:00 → ATL 19:08DL 2799	1h 51m Atlanta	ATL 20:59 → SJC 22:49DL 933	8h 49m	96%	84%
United Details →	BWI 08:30 → DEN 10:25UA 2412	1h 05m Denver	DEN 11:30 → SJC 13:09UA 1256	7h 39m	91%	77%
Alaska Details →	BWI 07:03 → SEA 09:53AS 786	3h 46m Seattle	SEA 13:39 → SJC 15:44AS 657	11h 41m	100%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON