tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 13–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 4510 Southwest BWI 08:12 SJU 12:24 13% 2% 0.6% no record
WN 1164 Southwest BWI 20:02 SJU 00:13 15% 6% 0.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Juan on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BWI 05:40 → ATL 07:31DL 2950 2h 14m Atlanta ATL 09:45 → SJU 13:32DL 1882 7h 52m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → BWI 08:17 → ATL 10:10DL 2562 2h 50m Atlanta ATL 13:00 → SJU 16:39DL 1946 8h 22m 100% 85%
DeltaDetails → BWI 14:08 → ATL 16:05DL 2711 2h 40m Atlanta ATL 18:45 → SJU 22:29DL 1861 8h 21m 98% 83%
UnitedDetails → BWI 06:00 → IAH 08:16UA 1898 1h 47m Houston IAH 10:03 → SJU 15:42UA 1192 9h 42m 99% 83%
AmericanDetails → BWI 06:15 → CLT 07:53AA 2670 3h 10m Charlotte CLT 11:03 → SJU 14:50AA 783 8h 35m 98% 83%
AmericanDetails → BWI 06:00 → MIA 08:46AA 1183 2h 41m Miami MIA 11:27 → SJU 14:21AA 1613 8h 21m 98% 81%
FrontierDetails → BWI 09:21 → MCO 11:54F9 3273 1h 50m Orlando MCO 13:44 → SJU 16:49F9 1824 7h 28m 94% 73%
FrontierDetails → BWI 06:35 → ATL 09:00F9 2633 3h 32m Atlanta ATL 12:32 → SJU 16:25F9 2082 9h 50m 100% 72%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON