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Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 11:35, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching Salt Lake City on time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
DL 1176 Delta Flight history → BWI 07:15 SLC 09:50 9% 3% 0.6% 81%
WN 3889 Southwest BWI 11:46 SLC 14:19 15% 3% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Salt Lake City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Salt Lake City is 2 h behind Baltimore). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BWI 05:40 → ATL 07:31DL 2950 2h 39m Atlanta ATL 10:10 → SLC 12:10DL 387 8h 30m 99% 91%
DeltaDetails → BWI 07:00 → ATL 08:52DL 2579 3h 04m Atlanta ATL 11:56 → SLC 13:50DL 663 8h 50m 100% 89%
UnitedDetails → BWI 06:00 → IAH 08:16UA 1898 1h 46m Houston IAH 10:02 → SLC 12:37UA 2242 8h 37m 99% 88%
AmericanDetails → BWI 05:02 → CLT 06:26AA 1708 3h 48m Charlotte CLT 10:14 → SLC 12:29AA 1895 9h 27m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → BWI 11:35 → MSP 13:11DL 2357 1h 14m Minneapolis MSP 14:25 → SLC 16:16DL 2658 6h 41m 96% 86%
DeltaDetails → BWI 08:17 → ATL 10:10DL 2562 3h 45m Atlanta ATL 13:55 → SLC 15:51DL 423 9h 34m 100% 85%
SouthwestDetails → BWI 07:11 → DAL 09:17WN 15 54m Dallas DAL 10:11 → SLC 11:52WN 1426 6h 41m 96% 85%
DeltaDetails → BWI 10:33 → ATL 12:24DL 1592 2h 56m Atlanta ATL 15:20 → SLC 17:18DL 526 8h 45m 99% 85%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON