Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:40, is the safest bet: 89% chance of reaching Sacramento on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 296 Southwest	BWI 11:46	SMF 14:29	11%	4%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sacramento on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Sacramento is 3 h behind Baltimore). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BWI 05:40 → ATL 07:31DL 2950	1h 45m Atlanta	ATL 09:16 → SMF 11:00DL 904	8h 20m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	BWI 07:15 → SLC 09:50DL 1176	1h 45m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:35 → SMF 12:16DL 1423	8h 01m	97%	89%
Delta Details →	BWI 06:20 → MSP 07:54DL 2872	2h 30m Minneapolis	MSP 10:24 → SMF 12:09DL 1701	8h 49m	99%	88%
United Details →	BWI 06:00 → IAH 08:16UA 1898	1h 41m Houston	IAH 09:57 → SMF 11:58UA 1155	8h 58m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	BWI 17:00 → ATL 19:08DL 2799	1h 51m Atlanta	ATL 20:59 → SMF 22:53DL 682	8h 53m	96%	83%
United Details →	BWI 08:30 → DEN 10:25UA 2412	3h 10m Denver	DEN 13:35 → SMF 15:10UA 662	9h 40m	99%	83%
Delta Details →	BWI 14:08 → ATL 16:05DL 2711	1h 54m Atlanta	ATL 17:59 → SMF 19:53DL 743	8h 45m	97%	82%
American Details →	BWI 11:58 → DFW 14:13AA 2314	2h 30m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 16:43 → SMF 18:20AA 651	9h 22m	96%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON