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Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: United via Denver, leaving 08:30, is the safest bet: 85% chance of reaching Santa Ana on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Santa Ana on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Santa Ana is 3 h behind Baltimore). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → BWI 08:30 → DEN 10:25UA 2412 3h 00m Denver DEN 13:25 → SNA 14:57UA 1707 9h 27m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → BWI 06:20 → MSP 07:54DL 2872 3h 06m Minneapolis MSP 11:00 → SNA 12:54DL 2081 9h 34m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → BWI 05:40 → ATL 07:31DL 2950 3h 29m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → SNA 12:31DL 329 9h 51m 100% 83%
UnitedDetails → BWI 06:00 → IAH 08:16UA 1898 1h 14m Houston IAH 09:30 → SNA 10:59UA 1383 7h 59m 97% 82%
DeltaDetails → BWI 06:08 → DTW 07:39DL 2601 1h 46m Detroit DTW 09:25 → SNA 11:05DL 1857 7h 57m 98% 82%
DeltaDetails → BWI 11:52 → ATL 13:41DL 801 3h 49m Atlanta ATL 17:30 → SNA 19:00DL 2012 10h 08m 100% 82%
DeltaDetails → BWI 17:00 → ATL 19:08DL 2799 1h 51m Atlanta ATL 20:59 → SNA 22:25DL 826 8h 25m 96% 81%
AmericanDetails → BWI 09:08 → DFW 11:30AA 1403 2h 59m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 14:29 → SNA 15:57AA 2659 9h 49m 98% 79%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON