Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Wed 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 11–19% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


WN 4820 Southwest	BWI 08:08	SRQ 10:47	11%	2%	2.1%	no record
WN 1167 Southwest	BWI 14:03	SRQ 16:43	19%	4%	1.9%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sarasota/Bradenton on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BWI 05:40 → ATL 07:31DL 2950	3h 13m Atlanta	ATL 10:44 → SRQ 12:20DL 3104	6h 40m	100%	89%
Delta Details →	BWI 08:17 → ATL 10:10DL 2562	3h 33m Atlanta	ATL 13:43 → SRQ 15:19DL 3115	7h 02m	100%	86%
Delta Details →	BWI 14:08 → ATL 16:05DL 2711	3h 50m Atlanta	ATL 19:55 → SRQ 21:32DL 1057	7h 24m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	BWI 10:33 → ATL 12:24DL 1592	3h 14m Atlanta	ATL 15:38 → SRQ 17:17DL 3109	6h 44m	99%	84%
American Details →	BWI 05:02 → CLT 06:26AA 1708	56m Charlotte	CLT 07:22 → SRQ 09:23AA 2264	4h 21m	94%	79%
American Details →	BWI 06:15 → CLT 07:53AA 2670	3h 29m Charlotte	CLT 11:22 → SRQ 13:23AA 3328	7h 08m	99%	78%
United Details →	BWI 09:05 → ORD 10:23UA 2749	47m Chicago	ORD 11:10 → SRQ 15:12UA 2287	6h 07m	75%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON