Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 1173 at 07:06 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 7–19%.

Safest bet that day WN 1173 BWI 07:06 → TPA 09:38 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1180 BWI 18:37 → TPA 21:09 · 19% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1173 Southwest	BWI 07:06	TPA 09:38	5%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 1177 Southwest	BWI 08:41	TPA 11:14	7%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 1178 Southwest	BWI 10:21	TPA 12:53	10%	3%	0.7%	no record
F9 2925 Frontier Flight history →	BWI 08:20	TPA 11:01	14%	5%	1.0%	73%
WN 2557 Southwest	BWI 15:31	TPA 18:04	15%	6%	0.7%	no record
WN 1180 Southwest	BWI 18:37	TPA 21:09	19%	6%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON