Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 4:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 1183 at 11:46, with a 9% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


WN 1183 Southwest	BWI 11:46	VPS 13:09	9%	2%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Valparaiso on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Valparaiso is 1 h behind Baltimore). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BWI 05:40 → ATL 07:31DL 2950	3h 13m Atlanta	ATL 10:44 → VPS 11:00DL 2048	6h 20m	100%	94%
Delta Details →	BWI 08:17 → ATL 10:10DL 2562	3h 40m Atlanta	ATL 13:50 → VPS 14:00DL 2832	6h 43m	100%	90%
Delta Details →	BWI 10:33 → ATL 12:24DL 1592	3h 20m Atlanta	ATL 15:44 → VPS 16:00DL 2170	6h 27m	100%	89%
Delta Details →	BWI 14:08 → ATL 16:05DL 2711	1h 56m Atlanta	ATL 18:01 → VPS 18:17DL 2803	5h 09m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	BWI 17:00 → ATL 19:08DL 2799	1h 27m Atlanta	ATL 20:35 → VPS 20:49DL 882	4h 49m	95%	85%
American Details →	BWI 09:08 → DFW 11:30AA 1403	1h 50m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 13:20 → VPS 15:29AA 2501	7h 21m	97%	72%
American Details →	BWI 11:58 → DFW 14:13AA 2314	2h 24m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 16:37 → VPS 18:38AA 2673	7h 40m	96%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON