Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, DL 406 at 14:21, with a 9% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 406 Delta Flight history →	BZN 14:21	ATL 20:14	9%	3%	0.6%	87%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Atlanta on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Atlanta is 2 h ahead of Bozeman). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BZN 05:15 → SLC 06:34DL 491	1h 36m Salt Lake City	SLC 08:10 → ATL 13:54DL 897	6h 39m	99%	92%
Delta Details →	BZN 06:00 → MSP 09:11DL 1678	1h 21m Minneapolis	MSP 10:32 → ATL 14:04DL 1046	6h 04m	98%	90%
Delta Details →	BZN 13:38 → MSP 16:55DL 2946	2h 29m Minneapolis	MSP 19:24 → ATL 23:03DL 8773	7h 25m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	BZN 12:13 → SLC 13:39DL 1971	1h 52m Salt Lake City	SLC 15:31 → ATL 21:25DL 875	7h 12m	98%	85%
United Details →	BZN 06:30 → DEN 08:24UA 1362	1h 51m Denver	DEN 10:15 → ATL 15:30UA 2806	7h 00m	97%	84%
American Details →	BZN 06:31 → DFW 10:37AA 817	1h 32m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:09 → ATL 15:39AA 1008	7h 08m	99%	82%
United Details →	BZN 14:26 → DEN 16:20UA 2258	1h 35m Denver	DEN 17:55 → ATL 23:11UA 248	6h 45m	95%	79%
Delta Details →	BZN 08:25 → SEA 09:28DL 4092 · flown by SkyWest	2h 31m Seattle	SEA 11:59 → ATL 20:04DL 554	9h 39m	97%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON