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Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 05:15, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching Boston on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Boston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Boston is 2 h ahead of Bozeman). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BZN 05:15 → SLC 06:34DL 491 3h 16m Salt Lake City SLC 09:50 → BOS 16:36DL 657 9h 21m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → BZN 06:00 → MSP 09:11DL 1678 54m Minneapolis MSP 10:05 → BOS 13:51DL 2655 5h 51m 94% 82%
DeltaDetails → BZN 12:13 → SLC 13:39DL 1971 3h 36m Salt Lake City SLC 17:15 → BOS 23:47DL 702 9h 34m 99% 79%
UnitedDetails → BZN 06:30 → DEN 08:24UA 1362 1h 16m Denver DEN 09:40 → BOS 15:44UA 1232 7h 14m 95% 78%
UnitedDetails → BZN 12:48 → ORD 16:57UA 2202 3h 20m Chicago ORD 20:17 → BOS 23:48UA 1365 9h 00m 97% 75%
DeltaDetails → BZN 13:38 → MSP 16:55DL 2946 1h 15m Minneapolis MSP 18:10 → BOS 22:01DL 1502 6h 23m 94% 74%
UnitedDetails → BZN 14:26 → DEN 16:20UA 2258 1h 20m Denver DEN 17:40 → BOS 23:44UA 1356 7h 18m 92% 72%
AmericanDetails → BZN 06:31 → DFW 10:37AA 817 1h 54m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:31 → BOS 17:25AA 1401 8h 54m 99% 69%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON