Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 1362 at 06:30 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–22%.

Safest bet that day UA 1362 BZN 06:30 → DEN 08:24 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest WN 3898 BZN 16:16 → DEN 18:01 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1362 United Flight history →	BZN 06:30	DEN 08:24	5%	2%	0.6%	97%
WN 3235 Southwest	BZN 07:06	DEN 08:51	6%	1%	0.6%	no record
OO 4654 SkyWest	BZN 10:39	DEN 12:30	7%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 4636 Southwest	BZN 11:06	DEN 12:52	8%	1%	0.5%	no record
UA 2258 United Flight history →	BZN 14:26	DEN 16:20	13%	4%	0.6%	82%
UA 431 United Flight history →	BZN 16:27	DEN 18:16	19%	5%	0.6%	65%
WN 3898 Southwest	BZN 16:16	DEN 18:01	22%	4%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON