Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: United via O'Hare, leaving 12:48, is the safest bet: 50% chance of reaching Newark on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


UA 348 United Flight history →	BZN 11:38	EWR 18:00	28%	13%	1.0%	77%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Newark on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Newark is 2 h ahead of Bozeman). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	BZN 06:30 → DEN 08:24UA 1362	1h 48m Denver	DEN 10:12 → EWR 16:16UA 2381	7h 46m	97%	75%
Delta Details →	BZN 05:15 → SLC 06:34DL 491	3h 55m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:29 → EWR 16:49DL 2033	9h 34m	99%	73%
United Details →	BZN 14:26 → DEN 16:20UA 2258	1h 30m Denver	DEN 17:50 → EWR 23:44UA 2613	7h 18m	93%	70%
American Details →	BZN 06:31 → DFW 10:37AA 817	1h 12m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 11:49 → EWR 16:25AA 813	7h 54m	97%	68%
American Details →	BZN 12:02 → DFW 16:10AA 952	2h 05m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:15 → EWR 22:51AA 618	8h 49m	94%	61%
United Details →	BZN 12:48 → ORD 16:57UA 2202	1h 05m Chicago	ORD 18:02 → EWR 21:13UA 2790	6h 25m	83%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON