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Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 05:15, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching Houston on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 1 h ahead of Bozeman). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BZN 05:15 → SLC 06:34DL 491 2h 56m Salt Lake City SLC 09:30 → IAH 13:42DL 1532 7h 27m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → BZN 06:00 → MSP 09:11DL 1678 1h 13m Minneapolis MSP 10:24 → IAH 13:14DL 2673 6h 14m 97% 86%
UnitedDetails → BZN 06:30 → DEN 08:24UA 1362 1h 43m Denver DEN 10:07 → IAH 13:38UA 2030 6h 08m 97% 83%
DeltaDetails → BZN 13:38 → MSP 16:55DL 2946 1h 45m Minneapolis MSP 18:40 → IAH 21:35DL 2683 6h 57m 96% 81%
AlaskaDetails → BZN 14:17 → SEA 15:10AS 279 2h 25m Seattle SEA 17:35 → IAH 00:05 +1AS 240 8h 48m 99% 79%
UnitedDetails → BZN 14:26 → DEN 16:20UA 2258 1h 48m Denver DEN 18:08 → IAH 21:40UA 1055 6h 14m 95% 78%
AmericanDetails → BZN 06:31 → DFW 10:37AA 817 1h 20m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 11:57 → IAH 13:15AA 1397 5h 44m 98% 74%
UnitedDetails → BZN 12:48 → ORD 16:57UA 2202 1h 19m Chicago ORD 18:16 → IAH 21:08UA 1921 7h 20m 87% 67%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON