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Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching New York on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 2 h ahead of Bozeman). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BZN 06:00 → MSP 09:11DL 1678 3h 43m Minneapolis MSP 12:54 → JFK 17:00DL 2661 9h 00m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → BZN 05:15 → SLC 06:34DL 491 3h 25m Salt Lake City SLC 09:59 → JFK 16:47DL 1792 9h 32m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → BZN 12:13 → SLC 13:39DL 1971 3h 31m Salt Lake City SLC 17:10 → JFK 23:47DL 697 9h 34m 99% 82%
DeltaDetails → BZN 08:25 → SEA 09:28DL 4092 · flown by SkyWest 2h 06m Seattle SEA 11:34 → JFK 20:15DL 415 9h 50m 96% 76%
AmericanDetails → BZN 06:31 → DFW 10:37AA 817 2h 43m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 13:20 → JFK 18:10AA 1058 9h 39m 100% 75%
AmericanDetails → BZN 12:02 → DFW 16:10AA 952 2h 22m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:32 → JFK 23:10AA 1248 9h 08m 94% 69%
AlaskaDetails → BZN 10:26 → SEA 11:23AS 2141 · flown by Horizon 2h 03m Seattle SEA 13:26 → JFK 21:14AS 34 8h 48m 99% 62%
DeltaDetails → BZN 13:38 → MSP 16:55DL 2946 1h 15m Minneapolis MSP 18:10 → JFK 22:09DL 5244 · flown by Endeavor 6h 31m 94% 44%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON