Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, UA 741 at 17:26, with a 13% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


UA 741 United Flight history →	BZN 17:26	LAX 19:07	13%	5%	0.6%	86%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Los Angeles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Los Angeles is 1 h behind Bozeman). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BZN 06:00 → MSP 09:11DL 1678	2h 19m Minneapolis	MSP 11:30 → LAX 13:23DL 2119	8h 23m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	BZN 05:15 → SLC 06:34DL 491	3h 01m Salt Lake City	SLC 09:35 → LAX 10:34DL 1095	6h 19m	99%	87%
United Details →	BZN 06:30 → DEN 08:24UA 1362	1h 38m Denver	DEN 10:02 → LAX 11:34UA 405	6h 04m	96%	83%
Delta Details →	BZN 08:25 → SEA 09:28DL 4092 · flown by SkyWest	3h 07m Seattle	SEA 12:35 → LAX 15:23DL 2914	7h 58m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	BZN 12:13 → SLC 13:39DL 1971	2h 01m Salt Lake City	SLC 15:40 → LAX 16:36DL 841	5h 23m	98%	82%
Delta Details →	BZN 13:38 → MSP 16:55DL 2946	2h 04m Minneapolis	MSP 18:59 → LAX 20:51DL 2122	8h 13m	98%	81%
American Details →	BZN 06:31 → DFW 10:37AA 817	2h 42m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 13:19 → LAX 14:39AA 1275	9h 08m	100%	78%
Alaska Details →	BZN 14:17 → SEA 15:10AS 279	2h 00m Seattle	SEA 17:10 → LAX 19:55AS 492	6h 38m	97%	77%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	BZN 14:17 → SEA 15:10AS 279	49m Seattle	SEA 15:59 → LAX 18:44AS 1300	5h 27m	73%	55%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON