Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 79% chance of reaching New York on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 2 h ahead of Bozeman). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BZN 06:00 → MSP 09:11DL 1678	3h 49m Minneapolis	MSP 13:00 → LGA 16:49DL 2756	8h 49m	99%	79%
United Details →	BZN 06:30 → DEN 08:24UA 1362	1h 25m Denver	DEN 09:49 → LGA 15:46UA 2446	7h 16m	95%	75%
United Details →	BZN 12:48 → ORD 16:57UA 2202	3h 15m Chicago	ORD 20:12 → LGA 23:34UA 2827	8h 46m	97%	74%
American Details →	BZN 12:02 → DFW 16:10AA 952	2h 52m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 19:02 → LGA 23:51AA 1375	9h 49m	98%	69%
United Details →	BZN 14:26 → DEN 16:20UA 2258	1h 15m Denver	DEN 17:35 → LGA 23:30UA 2033	7h 04m	91%	69%
American Details →	BZN 06:31 → DFW 10:37AA 817	1h 56m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:33 → LGA 17:21AA 672	8h 50m	99%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON