Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 4–9% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 1678 Delta Flight history →	BZN 06:00	MSP 09:11	4%	2%	0.6%	95%
DL 2946 Delta Flight history →	BZN 13:38	MSP 16:55	9%	3%	0.6%	88%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Minneapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 1 h ahead of Bozeman). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BZN 05:15 → SLC 06:34DL 491	1h 26m Salt Lake City	SLC 08:00 → MSP 11:29DL 2916	5h 14m	98%	92%
United Details →	BZN 06:30 → DEN 08:24UA 1362	1h 16m Denver	DEN 09:40 → MSP 12:40UA 397	5h 10m	95%	86%
Delta Details →	BZN 12:13 → SLC 13:39DL 1971	3h 42m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:21 → MSP 20:54DL 2935	7h 41m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	BZN 08:25 → SEA 09:28DL 4092 · flown by SkyWest	2h 44m Seattle	SEA 12:12 → MSP 17:25DL 536	8h 00m	98%	84%
United Details →	BZN 14:26 → DEN 16:20UA 2258	2h 25m Denver	DEN 18:45 → MSP 21:50UA 2076	6h 24m	96%	82%
American Details →	BZN 06:31 → DFW 10:37AA 817	1h 12m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 11:49 → MSP 14:20AA 1668	6h 49m	97%	78%
American Details →	BZN 12:02 → DFW 16:10AA 952	2h 41m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:51 → MSP 21:21AA 2806	8h 19m	96%	68%
Alaska Details →	BZN 10:26 → SEA 11:23AS 2141 · flown by Horizon	1h 00m Seattle	SEA 12:23 → MSP 17:29AS 772	6h 03m	86%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON