Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 1069 at 08:00 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 20–28%.

Safest bet that day UA 1069 BZN 08:00 → ORD 12:04 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1501 BZN 13:38 → ORD 17:45 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1069 United	BZN 08:00	ORD 12:04	9%	3%	0.9%	no record
UA 2202 United Flight history →	BZN 12:48	ORD 16:57	20%	5%	0.9%	78%
AA 1501 American Flight history →	BZN 13:38	ORD 17:45	28%	7%	0.9%	62%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	BZN 06:00 → MSP 09:11DL 1678	49m Minneapolis	MSP 10:00 → ORD 11:32DL 1567	4h 32m	92%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON