Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, AS 350 at 15:41, with a 9% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AS 350 Alaska	BZN 15:41	PDX 16:30	9%	5%	1.3%	no record
AS 2021 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	BZN 16:04	PDX 16:50	16%	5%	2.0%	84%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Portland is 1 h behind Bozeman). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BZN 05:15 → SLC 06:34DL 491	1h 11m Salt Lake City	SLC 07:45 → PDX 08:37DL 1203	4h 22m	98%	93%
Delta Details →	BZN 06:00 → MSP 09:11DL 1678	1h 48m Minneapolis	MSP 10:59 → PDX 12:41DL 1661	7h 41m	98%	91%
Delta Details →	BZN 12:13 → SLC 13:39DL 1971	3h 46m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:25 → PDX 18:18DL 1238	7h 05m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	BZN 13:38 → MSP 16:55DL 2946	1h 39m Minneapolis	MSP 18:34 → PDX 20:15DL 2151	7h 37m	96%	87%
United Details →	BZN 06:30 → DEN 08:24UA 1362	3h 03m Denver	DEN 11:27 → PDX 13:09UA 644	7h 39m	97%	84%
Alaska Details →	BZN 14:17 → SEA 15:10AS 279	2h 49m Seattle	SEA 17:59 → PDX 18:56AS 2302 · flown by Horizon	5h 39m	99%	74%
Delta Details →	BZN 08:25 → SEA 09:28DL 4092 · flown by SkyWest	1h 07m Seattle	SEA 10:35 → PDX 11:41DL 3802 · flown by SkyWest	4h 16m	91%	74%
Alaska Details →	BZN 10:26 → SEA 11:23AS 2141 · flown by Horizon	1h 11m Seattle	SEA 12:34 → PDX 13:28AS 488	4h 02m	92%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON