Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 05:15, is the safest bet: 92% chance of reaching Phoenix on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 66% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Phoenix on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 1 h behind Bozeman). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BZN 05:15 → SLC 06:34DL 491	1h 31m Salt Lake City	SLC 08:05 → PHX 08:44DL 1447	4h 29m	99%	92%
Delta Details →	BZN 06:00 → MSP 09:11DL 1678	2h 21m Minneapolis	MSP 11:32 → PHX 12:46DL 2274	7h 46m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	BZN 12:13 → SLC 13:39DL 1971	1h 41m Salt Lake City	SLC 15:20 → PHX 16:04DL 1738	4h 51m	97%	83%
United Details →	BZN 06:30 → DEN 08:24UA 1362	1h 26m Denver	DEN 09:50 → PHX 10:55UA 1782	5h 25m	95%	82%
American Details →	BZN 06:31 → DFW 10:37AA 817	1h 49m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:26 → PHX 13:12AA 336	7h 41m	99%	82%
Delta Details →	BZN 13:38 → MSP 16:55DL 2946	1h 53m Minneapolis	MSP 18:48 → PHX 20:06DL 2297	7h 28m	97%	81%
Delta Details →	BZN 08:25 → SEA 09:28DL 4092 · flown by SkyWest	2h 17m Seattle	SEA 11:45 → PHX 14:59DL 2449	7h 34m	97%	79%
United Details →	BZN 14:26 → DEN 16:20UA 2258	2h 10m Denver	DEN 18:30 → PHX 19:30UA 1507	6h 04m	95%	76%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	BZN 13:38 → ORD 17:45AA 1501	46m Chicago	ORD 18:31 → PHX 20:20AA 1767	7h 42m	66%	46%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON