Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AS 2050 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	BZN 13:50	SAN 15:34	33%	4%	0.0%	67%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Diego on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Diego is 1 h behind Bozeman). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BZN 05:15 → SLC 06:34DL 491	1h 11m Salt Lake City	SLC 07:45 → SAN 08:41DL 1177	4h 26m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	BZN 06:00 → MSP 09:11DL 1678	2h 27m Minneapolis	MSP 11:38 → SAN 13:24DL 2125	8h 24m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	BZN 13:38 → MSP 16:55DL 2946	1h 55m Minneapolis	MSP 18:50 → SAN 20:36DL 2145	7h 58m	97%	78%
Delta Details →	BZN 08:25 → SEA 09:28DL 4092 · flown by SkyWest	2h 46m Seattle	SEA 12:14 → SAN 15:16DL 2572	7h 51m	98%	78%
Delta Details →	BZN 12:13 → SLC 13:39DL 1971	3h 31m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:10 → SAN 18:06DL 1252	6h 53m	99%	76%
United Details →	BZN 06:30 → DEN 08:24UA 1362	2h 51m Denver	DEN 11:15 → SAN 12:41UA 1940	7h 11m	97%	75%
Alaska Details →	BZN 10:26 → SEA 11:23AS 2141 · flown by Horizon	2h 54m Seattle	SEA 14:17 → SAN 16:57AS 765	7h 31m	99%	68%
Alaska Details →	BZN 14:17 → SEA 15:10AS 279	1h 48m Seattle	SEA 16:58 → SAN 19:37AS 635	6h 20m	95%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON