Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, UA 1702 at 16:17, with a 25% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


UA 1702 United Flight history →	BZN 16:17	SFO 17:50	25%	13%	0.6%	56%
AS 2063 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	BZN 17:51	SFO 19:25	82%	43%	5.8%	18%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Francisco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 1 h behind Bozeman). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BZN 05:15 → SLC 06:34DL 491	1h 16m Salt Lake City	SLC 07:50 → SFO 08:51DL 920	4h 36m	98%	81%
Delta Details →	BZN 06:00 → MSP 09:11DL 1678	1h 49m Minneapolis	MSP 11:00 → SFO 13:09DL 2074	8h 09m	98%	80%
Delta Details →	BZN 13:38 → MSP 16:55DL 2946	1h 55m Minneapolis	MSP 18:50 → SFO 20:57DL 2809	8h 19m	97%	76%
United Details →	BZN 06:30 → DEN 08:24UA 1362	2h 57m Denver	DEN 11:21 → SFO 13:04UA 1561	7h 34m	97%	74%
Delta Details →	BZN 12:13 → SLC 13:39DL 1971	1h 31m Salt Lake City	SLC 15:10 → SFO 16:12DL 1088	4h 59m	97%	73%
United Details →	BZN 14:26 → DEN 16:20UA 2258	1h 34m Denver	DEN 17:54 → SFO 19:40UA 1007	6h 14m	95%	71%
Alaska Details →	BZN 14:17 → SEA 15:10AS 279	1h 26m Seattle	SEA 16:36 → SFO 18:48AS 1385	5h 31m	89%	64%
American Details →	BZN 06:31 → DFW 10:37AA 817	47m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 11:24 → SFO 13:06AA 2387	7h 35m	89%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON