Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: YX 4620 at 05:58 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 24%.

Safest bet that day YX 4620 CAE 05:58 → LGA 08:10 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 4506 CAE 15:12 → LGA 17:23 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


YX 4620 Republic	CAE 05:58	LGA 08:10	7%	4%	2.9%	no record
AA 4506 American flown by Republic Flight history →	CAE 15:12	LGA 17:23	24%	9%	1.8%	69%
DL 5131 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	CAE 07:01	LGA 08:59	13%	7%	4.0%	87%
DL 5089 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	CAE 16:05	LGA 18:06	29%	14%	9.5%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON