tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AA 6115 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record CAE 12:45 PHL 14:40 18% 8% 0.0% 82%
AA 6084 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record CAE 18:38 PHL 20:36 31% 21% 4.2% 69%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Philadelphia on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → CAE 05:35 → ATL 06:40DL 3038 2h 15m Atlanta ATL 08:55 → PHL 10:57DL 2270 5h 22m 97% 89%
AmericanDetails → CAE 05:00 → CLT 06:09AA 5855 · flown by Piedmont 3h 33m Charlotte CLT 09:42 → PHL 11:35AA 2565 6h 35m 100% 89%
DeltaDetails → CAE 07:01 → ATL 08:16DL 3061 3h 16m Atlanta ATL 11:32 → PHL 13:43DL 8885 6h 42m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → CAE 15:51 → ATL 16:59DL 3193 3h 24m Atlanta ATL 20:23 → PHL 22:33DL 1174 6h 42m 98% 85%
AmericanDetails → CAE 08:49 → CLT 10:07AA 6048 · flown by Piedmont 2h 55m Charlotte CLT 13:02 → PHL 14:50AA 2573 6h 01m 100% 82%
UnitedDetails → CAE 06:25 → ORD 07:52UA 4496 · flown by GoJet 1h 42m Chicago ORD 09:34 → PHL 12:48UA 729 6h 23m 94% 81%
DeltaDetails → CAE 06:40 → ATL 07:54DL 5061 · flown by Endeavor 3h 27m Atlanta ATL 11:21 → PHL 13:24DL 2279 6h 44m 96% 81%
DeltaDetails → CAE 11:58 → ATL 13:10DL 5091 · flown by Endeavor 2h 55m Atlanta ATL 16:05 → PHL 18:12DL 1329 6h 14m 100% 81%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → CAE 17:13 → ORD 18:44AA 4183 · flown by Envoy 53m Chicago ORD 19:37 → PHL 22:57AA 532 5h 44m 71% 53%
AmericanDetails → CAE 16:10 → CLT 17:27AA 6046 · flown by Piedmont 47m Charlotte CLT 18:14 → PHL 20:15AA 423 4h 05m 65% 51%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON