Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, AA 5084 at 06:57, with a 11% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 5084 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CHA 06:57	DCA 08:49	11%	8%	1.2%	100%worse than usual

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	CHA 05:00 → CLT 06:32AA 5866 · flown by Piedmont	2h 56m Charlotte	CLT 09:28 → DCA 11:13AA 3043	6h 13m	100%	90%
Delta Details →	CHA 06:41 → ATL 07:41DL 3057	1h 59m Atlanta	ATL 09:40 → DCA 11:27DL 380	4h 46m	97%	86%
Delta Details →	CHA 06:00 → DTW 07:55DL 4652 · flown by Endeavor	2h 05m Detroit	DTW 10:00 → DCA 11:28DL 2476	5h 28m	96%	84%
United Details →	CHA 06:00 → ORD 06:59UA 4540 · flown by GoJet	3h 01m Chicago	ORD 10:00 → DCA 13:05UA 1904	7h 05m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	CHA 08:13 → ATL 09:13DL 3039	1h 46m Atlanta	ATL 10:59 → DCA 12:47DL 1798	4h 34m	94%	82%
American Details →	CHA 06:04 → DFW 07:24AA 426	2h 09m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:33 → DCA 13:43AA 2399	7h 39m	96%	81%
United Details →	CHA 16:43 → IAH 17:53UA 5091 · flown by SkyWest	1h 57m Houston	IAH 19:50 → DCA 23:59UA 2224	7h 16m	90%	76%
Delta Details →	CHA 10:01 → ATL 11:02DL 5309 · flown by Endeavor	2h 07m Atlanta	ATL 13:09 → DCA 14:56DL 360	4h 55m	97%	76%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	CHA 16:33 → CLT 18:07AA 6051 · flown by Piedmont	54m Charlotte	CLT 19:01 → DCA 20:35AA 527	4h 02m	63%	44%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON