Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: MQ 3900 at 12:20 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 16–28%.

Safest bet that day MQ 3900 CHA 12:20 → DFW 13:29 · 13% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2037 CHA 16:05 → DFW 17:21 · 28% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


MQ 3900 Envoy	CHA 12:20	DFW 13:29	13%	4%	0.8%	no record
AA 426 American Flight history →	CHA 06:04	DFW 07:24	16%	5%	0.9%	63%
AA 2037 American	CHA 16:05	DFW 17:21	28%	11%	1.0%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON