Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


UA 4413 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	CHA 17:58	EWR 20:19	47%	30%	7.1%	53%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Newark on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	CHA 05:00 → CLT 06:32AA 5866 · flown by Piedmont	1h 47m Charlotte	CLT 08:19 → EWR 10:18AA 1707	5h 18m	100%	89%
Delta Details →	CHA 06:41 → ATL 07:41DL 3057	2h 24m Atlanta	ATL 10:05 → EWR 12:21DL 2401	5h 40m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	CHA 06:00 → DTW 07:55DL 4652 · flown by Endeavor	2h 20m Detroit	DTW 10:15 → EWR 11:56DL 2577	5h 56m	96%	84%
United Details →	CHA 06:00 → ORD 06:59UA 4540 · flown by GoJet	2h 00m Chicago	ORD 08:59 → EWR 12:10UA 2238	6h 10m	96%	80%
Delta Details →	CHA 08:13 → ATL 09:13DL 3039	2h 49m Atlanta	ATL 12:02 → EWR 14:16DL 2312	6h 03m	100%	76%
Delta Details →	CHA 06:40 → ATL 07:38DL 5039 · flown by Endeavor	3h 24m Atlanta	ATL 11:02 → EWR 13:15DL 8883	6h 35m	94%	73%
United Details →	CHA 07:00 → IAH 08:23UA 5086 · flown by SkyWest	1h 28m Houston	IAH 09:51 → EWR 14:30UA 2402	7h 30m	92%	72%
Delta Details →	CHA 10:01 → ATL 11:02DL 5309 · flown by Endeavor	2h 07m Atlanta	ATL 13:09 → EWR 15:24DL 2322	5h 23m	97%	71%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	CHA 15:00 → DTW 16:58DL 5117 · flown by Endeavor	46m Detroit	DTW 17:44 → EWR 19:30DL 2567	4h 30m	71%	44%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON