Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 15–22% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


UA 5086 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	CHA 07:00	IAH 08:23	15%	8%	0.7%	62%
UA 5091 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	CHA 16:43	IAH 17:53	22%	13%	0.6%	63%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 1 h behind Chattanooga). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	CHA 05:00 → CLT 06:32AA 5866 · flown by Piedmont	1h 47m Charlotte	CLT 08:19 → IAH 09:57AA 2445	5h 57m	100%	88%
Delta Details →	CHA 06:41 → ATL 07:41DL 3057	2h 24m Atlanta	ATL 10:05 → IAH 11:14DL 1682	5h 33m	98%	86%
American Details →	CHA 06:04 → DFW 07:24AA 426	3h 04m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:28 → IAH 11:48AA 3829 · flown by Envoy	6h 44m	97%	86%
Delta Details →	CHA 08:13 → ATL 09:13DL 3039	3h 14m Atlanta	ATL 12:27 → IAH 13:33DL 1572	6h 20m	100%	86%
United Details →	CHA 06:00 → ORD 06:59UA 4540 · flown by GoJet	1h 52m Chicago	ORD 08:51 → IAH 11:51UA 535	6h 51m	96%	83%
American Details →	CHA 09:19 → CLT 10:56AA 6050 · flown by Piedmont	1h 46m Charlotte	CLT 12:42 → IAH 14:20AA 398	6h 01m	100%	82%
Delta Details →	CHA 14:50 → ATL 15:52DL 3141	3h 09m Atlanta	ATL 19:01 → IAH 20:08DL 2327	6h 18m	98%	81%
Delta Details →	CHA 10:01 → ATL 11:02DL 5309 · flown by Endeavor	3h 43m Atlanta	ATL 14:45 → IAH 15:52DL 1223	6h 51m	97%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON