Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 4:00 PM ET · 34 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 2373 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–27%.

Safest bet that day UA 2373 ORD 06:00 → LAX 08:27 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AA 3063 ORD 19:07 → LAX 21:27 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 58% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2373 United Flight history →	ORD 06:00	LAX 08:27	12%	2%	0.6%	89%
WN 1749 Southwest	MDW 07:01	LAX 09:22	12%	2%	0.6%	no record
AA 607 American Flight history →	ORD 06:00	LAX 08:20	12%	3%	1.0%	88%
DL 1556 Delta Flight history →	ORD 07:29	LAX 10:00	12%	3%	0.4%	80%
UA 2361 United Flight history →	ORD 07:00	LAX 09:33	13%	3%	0.6%	90%
WN 1908 Southwest	MDW 09:51	LAX 12:09	13%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 3508 Southwest	MDW 11:56	ONT 14:12	14%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 1304 United Flight history →	ORD 08:40	SNA 11:21	14%	4%	0.6%	79%
AA 1009 American	ORD 07:05	LAX 09:33	14%	4%	1.0%	no record
WN 2907 Southwest	MDW 15:46	BUR 18:03	16%	5%	0.7%	no record
AA 1920 American	ORD 08:17	SNA 10:39	17%	4%	0.9%	no record
UA 2814 United Flight history →	ORD 08:48	LAX 11:26	18%	4%	0.6%	82%
DL 967 Delta Flight history →	ORD 14:42	LAX 17:14	18%	6%	0.5%	68%
UA 2499 United Flight history →	ORD 20:18	LAX 22:55	18%	8%	0.6%	58%
AA 3008 American Flight history →	ORD 12:13	LAX 14:38	18%	6%	0.8%	79%
UA 1363 United Flight history →	ORD 13:00	LAX 15:34	18%	6%	0.6%	83%
UA 2170 United	ORD 10:32	LAX 12:44	18%	5%	0.6%	no record
WN 3035 Southwest	MDW 12:01	LGB 14:21	18%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 1979 American Flight history →	ORD 09:00	LAX 11:21	18%	5%	1.0%	74%
UA 374 United Flight history →	ORD 14:30	LAX 17:05	19%	7%	0.6%	80%
AA 2012 American Flight history →	ORD 08:10	LAX 10:35	19%	5%	1.0%	70%
AA 1916 American	ORD 11:58	SNA 14:19	19%	5%	0.8%	no record
AA 2903 American	ORD 13:59	LAX 16:32	20%	8%	1.0%	no record
UA 576 United Flight history →	ORD 15:47	LAX 18:20	20%	8%	0.6%	76%
AA 1179 American Flight history →	ORD 17:57	SNA 20:34	21%	5%	1.0%	74%
DL 1775 Delta	ORD 19:05	LAX 21:13	21%	7%	0.4%	no record
UA 542 United	ORD 14:58	LAX 17:07	22%	7%	0.6%	no record
WN 2966 Southwest	MDW 15:56	LAX 18:11	22%	5%	0.6%	no record
UA 1317 United Flight history →	ORD 15:58	SNA 18:09	23%	8%	0.6%	70%
UA 1967 United Flight history →	ORD 18:10	LAX 20:40	24%	8%	0.6%	69%
AA 529 American Flight history →	ORD 15:21	LAX 17:43	26%	10%	1.0%	59%
UA 2494 United	ORD 16:42	LAX 18:51	26%	8%	0.6%	no record
AA 2364 American Flight history →	ORD 19:08	LAX 21:33	27%	9%	1.0%	59%
AA 3063 American Flight history →	ORD 19:07	LAX 21:27	27%	9%	1.0%	58%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	ORD 05:00 → DEN 06:41UA 2666	59m Denver	DEN 07:40 → SNA 09:07UA 2666	6h 07m	95%	87%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON