tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 4:00 PM ET · 52 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 1799 at 05:01 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 12–26%.

Safest bet that day WN 1799 MDW 05:01 → BWI 08:00 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2769 ORD 14:55 → DCA 18:00 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.
WN 1799 Southwest MDW 05:01 BWI 08:00 2% <1% 0.9% no record
WN 2869 Southwest MDW 06:01 DCA 09:02 3% 1% 0.7% no record
WN 973 Southwest MDW 07:21 BWI 10:20 4% 1% 0.8% no record
WN 467 Southwest MDW 08:51 DCA 11:53 6% 2% 0.7% no record
YX 4494 Republic ORD 06:00 DCA 09:08 6% 2% 1.3% no record
AA 495 American ORD 06:57 DCA 10:06 7% 3% 1.3% no record
UA 1269 United Flight history → ORD 06:30 BWI 09:27 7% 2% 0.7% 94%
UA 1077 United Flight history → ORD 07:23 DCA 10:24 8% 4% 0.7% 92%
UA 482 United Flight history → ORD 07:00 DCA 09:59 8% 4% 0.7% 86%
AA 3762 American flown by Envoy Flight history → ORD 07:18 BWI 10:26 8% 3% 1.2% 93%
WN 2880 Southwest MDW 11:01 BWI 13:59 9% 2% 0.7% no record
UA 1705 United Flight history → ORD 08:00 DCA 11:06 9% 5% 0.7% 90%
WN 2848 Southwest MDW 12:46 BWI 15:44 10% 2% 0.7% no record
UA 2277 United Flight history → ORD 08:40 IAD 11:52 10% 3% 0.6% 92%
UA 304 United ORD 20:14 IAD 23:15 12% 6% 0.6% no record
AA 523 American Flight history → ORD 09:05 DCA 12:17 12% 6% 1.1% 79%
AA 2345 American Flight history → ORD 08:00 DCA 10:59 12% 4% 1.3% 77%
UA 202 United ORD 09:00 DCA 12:06 13% 6% 0.6% no record
WN 4320 Southwest MDW 12:51 DCA 15:52 13% 4% 0.6% no record
AA 4253 American flown by Envoy Flight history → ORD 09:53 BWI 12:52 13% 3% 1.1% 78%
UA 2653 United Flight history → ORD 10:51 BWI 13:57 13% 4% 0.6% 83%
AA 315 American ORD 10:04 DCA 13:22 13% 7% 1.1% no record
UA 1486 United ORD 10:52 IAD 13:49 14% 5% 0.6% no record
UA 220 United ORD 20:12 BWI 23:23 14% 7% 0.7% no record
UA 1904 United ORD 10:00 DCA 13:05 14% 6% 0.6% no record
AA 1200 American Flight history → ORD 10:36 DCA 13:45 14% 6% 1.0% 61%
F9 4064 Frontier Flight history → ORD 06:18 BWI 09:28 14% 4% 1.5% 65%
WN 439 Southwest MDW 11:11 DCA 14:12 15% 4% 0.6% no record
WN 5030 Southwest MDW 19:36 BWI 22:35 15% 4% 0.7% no record
YX 4758 Republic ORD 14:32 BWI 17:41 15% 6% 2.6% no record
UA 1128 United ORD 12:55 IAD 15:53 16% 5% 0.6% no record
UA 3751 United ORD 17:00 IAD 20:06 16% 7% 0.6% no record
UA 2668 United Flight history → ORD 11:15 DCA 14:22 17% 7% 0.6% 69%
UA 752 United Flight history → ORD 12:45 DCA 15:52 18% 8% 0.7% 65%
UA 587 United Flight history → ORD 14:31 IAD 17:27 19% 7% 0.6% 73%
UA 2160 United Flight history → ORD 19:45 DCA 22:54 19% 9% 0.8% 56%
WN 3391 Southwest MDW 17:01 DCA 20:01 20% 7% 0.7% no record
WN 2850 Southwest MDW 18:26 BWI 21:25 20% 4% 0.8% no record
UA 2202 United Flight history → ORD 18:12 IAD 21:22 20% 8% 0.6% 57%
AA 4663 American flown by Republic Flight history → ORD 18:41 BWI 21:51 20% 7% 1.4% 79%
UA 2737 United ORD 14:57 BWI 18:00 22% 9% 0.6% no record
UA 1314 United Flight history → ORD 14:00 DCA 17:12 22% 9% 0.7% 56%
UA 1941 United Flight history → ORD 15:00 DCA 18:12 23% 11% 0.8% 66%
UA 2761 United ORD 16:57 DCA 20:02 23% 10% 0.7% no record
AA 489 American Flight history → ORD 17:00 DCA 20:08 23% 10% 1.2% 70%
AA 514 American ORD 18:05 DCA 21:24 24% 11% 1.3% no record
AA 789 American ORD 13:18 DCA 16:25 24% 9% 1.2% no record
UA 1369 United Flight history → ORD 18:00 DCA 21:10 25% 11% 0.8% 50%
UA 2812 United ORD 16:00 DCA 19:05 25% 10% 0.7% no record
UA 1557 United ORD 18:18 BWI 21:25 25% 9% 0.6% no record
AA 1187 American Flight history → ORD 18:50 DCA 21:59 26% 11% 1.3% 58%
AA 2769 American Flight history → ORD 14:55 DCA 18:00 26% 10% 1.2% 74%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON