Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:10, is the safest bet: 91% chance of reaching Austin on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 66% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Austin on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Austin is 1 h behind Charleston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	CHS 05:10 → ATL 06:17DL 3055	1h 53m Atlanta	ATL 08:10 → AUS 09:27DL 2976	5h 17m	98%	91%
Delta Details →	CHS 06:15 → ATL 07:25DL 2124	2h 18m Atlanta	ATL 09:43 → AUS 11:03DL 2886	5h 48m	99%	89%
United Details →	CHS 06:00 → ORD 07:33UA 2333	1h 28m Chicago	ORD 09:01 → AUS 11:59UA 1688	6h 59m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	CHS 09:41 → ATL 11:00DL 5450 · flown by Endeavor	1h 33m Atlanta	ATL 12:33 → AUS 13:54DL 2104	5h 13m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	CHS 08:20 → ATL 09:34DL 789	1h 31m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → AUS 12:25DL 2011	5h 05m	95%	85%
Delta Details →	CHS 11:18 → ATL 12:27DL 3091	1h 48m Atlanta	ATL 14:15 → AUS 15:50DL 1397	5h 32m	97%	83%
American Details →	CHS 05:54 → MIA 07:45AA 1763	1h 25m Miami	MIA 09:10 → AUS 11:20AA 812	6h 26m	100%	83%
Delta Details →	CHS 06:00 → JFK 08:01DL 5445 · flown by Endeavor	3h 09m New York	JFK 11:10 → AUS 14:06DL 2323	9h 06m	97%	82%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	CHS 15:35 → BOS 18:04DL 2785	55m Boston	BOS 18:59 → AUS 22:26DL 1677	7h 51m	66%	42%
JetBlue Details →	CHS 18:30 → FLL 20:10B6 1131	49m Fort Lauderdale	FLL 20:59 → AUS 23:08B6 2271	5h 38m	66%	42%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON