tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 3–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 1189 Southwest CHS 06:36 BNA 07:19 3% 1% 0.6% no record
WN 1779 Southwest CHS 14:36 BNA 15:19 12% 5% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Nashville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Nashville is 1 h behind Charleston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → CHS 05:10 → ATL 06:17DL 3055 2h 14m Atlanta ATL 08:31 → BNA 08:41DL 3069 4h 31m 99% 93%
DeltaDetails → CHS 06:15 → ATL 07:25DL 2124 2h 32m Atlanta ATL 09:57 → BNA 10:09DL 1155 4h 54m 99% 91%
DeltaDetails → CHS 09:41 → ATL 11:00DL 5450 · flown by Endeavor 2h 54m Atlanta ATL 13:54 → BNA 14:03DL 3159 5h 22m 100% 88%
DeltaDetails → CHS 17:00 → ATL 18:19DL 1381 3h 11m Atlanta ATL 21:30 → BNA 21:44DL 3002 5h 44m 99% 87%
AmericanDetails → CHS 08:48 → CLT 10:15AA 5817 · flown by Piedmont 1h 51m Charlotte CLT 12:06 → BNA 12:38AA 2409 4h 50m 100% 87%
DeltaDetails → CHS 08:20 → ATL 09:34DL 789 1h 47m Atlanta ATL 11:21 → BNA 11:30DL 2867 4h 10m 95% 87%
DeltaDetails → CHS 11:18 → ATL 12:27DL 3091 2h 46m Atlanta ATL 15:13 → BNA 15:26DL 3142 5h 08m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → CHS 14:27 → ATL 15:43DL 2179 2h 48m Atlanta ATL 18:31 → BNA 18:52DL 1490 5h 25m 98% 84%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → CHS 13:00 → DTW 15:11DL 5431 · flown by Endeavor 50m Detroit DTW 16:01 → BNA 16:40DL 2316 4h 40m 71% 61%
AmericanDetails → CHS 15:37 → DFW 17:31AA 2166 47m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:18 → BNA 20:17AA 1076 5h 40m 66% 47%
DeltaDetails → CHS 12:47 → JFK 15:00DL 5015 · flown by Endeavor 50m New York JFK 15:50 → BNA 17:47DL 4909 · flown by Endeavor 6h 00m 66% 43%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON