Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 3298 at 08:16 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–23%.

Safest bet that day AA 3298 CHS 08:16 → CLT 09:25 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 98% on time Riskiest AA 3117 CHS 17:44 → CLT 19:02 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 54% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 3298 American Flight history →	CHS 08:16	CLT 09:25	9%	3%	0.8%	98%
OH 5562 PSA	CHS 06:20	CLT 07:25	10%	3%	1.1%	no record
AA 1731 American Flight history →	CHS 10:20	CLT 11:32	11%	3%	0.8%	91%
OH 5171 PSA	CHS 12:25	CLT 13:30	16%	4%	1.0%	no record
OH 5166 PSA	CHS 14:08	CLT 15:13	22%	5%	1.0%	no record
AA 1586 American Flight history →	CHS 19:51	CLT 21:06	22%	7%	0.9%	76%
AA 3117 American Flight history →	CHS 17:44	CLT 19:02	23%	7%	0.9%	54%
AA 5817 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	CHS 08:48	CLT 10:15	7%	0%	0.0%	93%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON