Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 974 at 18:41, with a 25% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 974 Southwest	CHS 18:41	DAL 20:24	25%	4%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas is 1 h behind Charleston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	CHS 05:10 → ATL 06:17DL 3055	1h 58m Atlanta	ATL 08:15 → DAL 09:21DL 441	5h 11m	98%	90%
Delta Details →	CHS 06:15 → ATL 07:25DL 2124	2h 50m Atlanta	ATL 10:15 → DAL 11:24DL 1115	6h 09m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	CHS 09:41 → ATL 11:00DL 5450 · flown by Endeavor	2h 59m Atlanta	ATL 13:59 → DAL 15:03DL 512	6h 22m	100%	86%
Delta Details →	CHS 17:00 → ATL 18:19DL 1381	2h 56m Atlanta	ATL 21:15 → DAL 22:25DL 1104	6h 25m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	CHS 13:05 → ATL 14:20DL 3107	2h 24m Atlanta	ATL 16:44 → DAL 17:54DL 2780	5h 49m	98%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON