Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 2773 at 05:57 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 27–28%.

Safest bet that day AA 2773 CHS 05:57 → DCA 07:42 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OH 5056 CHS 19:24 → DCA 21:02 · 28% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2773 American	CHS 05:57	DCA 07:42	5%	4%	0.9%	no record
MQ 3891 Envoy	CHS 11:29	DCA 13:14	14%	5%	1.5%	no record
AA 5607 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CHS 14:01	DCA 15:40	24%	8%	2.2%	85%
OH 5566 PSA	CHS 16:14	DCA 17:52	27%	10%	2.5%	no record
OH 5056 PSA	CHS 19:24	DCA 21:02	28%	12%	2.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON