Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 662 at 08:26 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–30%.

Safest bet that day UA 662 CHS 08:26 → DEN 10:08 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 482 CHS 16:51 → DEN 18:35 · 30% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 662 United	CHS 08:26	DEN 10:08	10%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 557 United Flight history →	CHS 16:20	DEN 18:05	25%	6%	0.6%	74%
WN 482 Southwest	CHS 16:51	DEN 18:35	30%	6%	0.6%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	CHS 06:15 → ATL 07:25DL 2124	47m Atlanta	ATL 08:12 → DEN 09:21DL 346	5h 06m	95%	83%
Delta Details →	CHS 14:27 → ATL 15:43DL 2179	1h 00m Atlanta	ATL 16:43 → DEN 17:56DL 519	5h 29m	91%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON